Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11540

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.457). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11539, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11540
    27 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC

    ZSCAN12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZSCAN12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8febfc4163154845

    discovery+0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.457)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e66b1459dbc2a3200e8757d0…
    follows 5c9c7197a619…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11553 (2026-10-27 04:27 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11540: ZSCAN12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZSCAN12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.