Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11517

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.421). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11516, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11517
    27 Oct 2026, 03:34 UTC

    KCNJ2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKCNJ2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2055346b1a60aea3

    discovery+0.31 p=0.421 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.421)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0bc8bf57378207da1169798b…
    follows d252d06f7924…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11527 (2026-10-27 03:47 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11517: KCNJ2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNJ2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.