Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11511

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11510, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11511
    27 Oct 2026, 03:23 UTC

    DNAJC22

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAJC22 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda547297553b0402d

    discovery-0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bab11c9b8a3bbba910049136…
    follows 7100554bd17b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11527 (2026-10-27 03:47 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11511: DNAJC22 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAJC22 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.