Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11493

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11492, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11493
    27 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    RPS26

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS26 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9edf244bb40906eb

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    50cbda3d992803b9d52cc320…
    follows 10e400f6d765…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11499 (2026-10-27 03:07 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11493: RPS26 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs +0.15 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS26 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RPS26 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.9e-4)