Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11483

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11482, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11483
    27 Oct 2026, 02:44 UTC

    NCOA3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCOA3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda163dc88b20b9e03

    discovery+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5fc6ce7a33e9d77987abb59a…
    follows ebaf615c04bb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11499 (2026-10-27 03:07 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11483: NCOA3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCOA3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.