Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11438

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.039; held-out +0.14 p 0.722). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11437, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11438
    27 Oct 2026, 02:24 UTC

    IL7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered851c1ea5657f215b

    discovery+0.69 p=0.039 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.722 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.039; held-out +0.14 p 0.722)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a1d1a5d57799ba199430e3ab…
    follows ab59d5ee79c2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11474 (2026-10-27 02:32 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11438: IL7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.