Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11435

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11434, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11435
    27 Oct 2026, 02:21 UTC

    P2RY1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionP2RY1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfcc5245878627ede

    discovery+0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.441 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    75d2cf79616fb09ad0f59d2c…
    follows 4214cbbc8717…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11474 (2026-10-27 02:32 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11435: P2RY1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RY1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.