Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11429

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.145). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11428, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11429
    27 Oct 2026, 02:13 UTC

    FGF10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8dfe729da7a4a41

    discovery+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.145)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b0435e064ca33b7cf873b69…
    follows c3ceec0075f8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11474 (2026-10-27 02:32 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11429: FGF10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.