Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11414

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.886). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11413, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11414
    27 Oct 2026, 01:52 UTC

    PPP3CA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP3CA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2d60060d05df9ef

    discovery+0.06 p=0.886 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.886)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1501173311bd2fa402274aad…
    follows ca2cc5cc93e6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11414: PPP3CA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP3CA in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PPP3CA · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 1.9e-4)