Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11412

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.925). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11411, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11412
    27 Oct 2026, 01:51 UTC

    OR2B11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOR2B11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered55a4087c2342fbc8

    discovery-0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.925)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    944d033ae2f3f92c222d8102…
    follows 3010f2e3469b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11412: OR2B11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.14, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OR2B11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.