Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11410

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.287). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11409, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11410
    27 Oct 2026, 01:48 UTC

    PTBP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTBP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede62c3d0849f11e7f

    discovery+0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.287)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d991f2671b73b39fbe269b26…
    follows 16e155fc7b21…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11410: PTBP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.15, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTBP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.