Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11404

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11403, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11404
    27 Oct 2026, 01:42 UTC

    BOK

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionBOK in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddb33f1bbd76e0c83

    discovery-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.397 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cab788df9b2054bafbac75fd…
    follows e036ed28450f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11404: BOK in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.11, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BOK in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.