Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11401

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11400, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11401
    27 Oct 2026, 01:39 UTC

    YBX3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionYBX3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered285209c39629714a

    discovery+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c07964cce57a82b6fc60c39…
    follows 6c7a2cabda4c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11425 (2026-10-27 02:06 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11401: YBX3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for YBX3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.