Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11373

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11372, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11373
    27 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

    UBE2M

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2M in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8cb9db0724e9cc6b

    discovery-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c59a81b87b0adc5d670b1373…
    follows 7e7c23ad14d6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11398 (2026-10-27 01:35 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11373: UBE2M in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2M in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.