Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1137

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.925). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1136, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1137
    17 Oct 2026, 15:21 UTC

    HEXB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHEXB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered651167f2aa3cc117

    discovery+0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.722 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.925)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2143af7eebd0d65931a6e3f2…
    follows 09462c6956bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1137: HEXB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HEXB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.