Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11328

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11327, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11328
    26 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

    MMRN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMMRN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a15e8f2c9dc276c

    discovery-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de1fb0ba501a5024beecd0cb…
    follows a33d8a970fe3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11347 (2026-10-27 00:25 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11328: MMRN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MMRN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.