Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11322

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11321, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11322
    26 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC

    LPCAT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLPCAT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered202a4dab87bd86df

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8467b2d7e127eef86b4f147f…
    follows 4f852517d957…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11347 (2026-10-27 00:25 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11322: LPCAT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LPCAT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.