Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11305

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11304, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11305
    26 Oct 2026, 23:26 UTC

    TNFRSF25

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFRSF25 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7f10c0a6d06945c

    discovery-0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.571 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ae1a7e396c31c98c3e4e25a8…
    follows e67e22dcec6e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11319 (2026-10-26 23:45 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11305: TNFRSF25 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF25 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.