Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11281

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11280, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11281
    26 Oct 2026, 22:53 UTC

    JAG2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJAG2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf55ff6ca782f598b

    discovery-0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.121 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b671b1b8496229ea82c8d10d…
    follows 36c75a50b4bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11292 (2026-10-26 23:10 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11281: JAG2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAG2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.