Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11237

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.879). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11236, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11237
    26 Oct 2026, 21:49 UTC

    RALA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRALA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c11d0110a11c0af

    discovery-0.06 p=0.879 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.879)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    79c694267065149bed98f15e…
    follows c0db4579e65c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11237: RALA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RALA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.