Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11220

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11219, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11220
    26 Oct 2026, 21:24 UTC

    LRRC8D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRRC8D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10221283b97b92b3

    discovery+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    95380694f66c7fda1e75e839…
    follows 324bb43eb9f6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11237 (2026-10-26 21:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11220: LRRC8D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.63 (p 0.0051, n 18) vs +0.33 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC8D in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LRRC8D · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.03 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.9e-4)