Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11177

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11176, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11177
    26 Oct 2026, 20:24 UTC

    RNF152

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF152 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6478648bc88ce68f

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a7a9cf2dba1c88a9d6bdcfe0…
    follows 965d4003467c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11177: RNF152 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF152 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.