Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11175

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11174, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11175
    26 Oct 2026, 20:21 UTC

    CCDC154

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCDC154 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered98d4d1dcb95932b5

    discovery-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7390de2e4c773f6add40ffad…
    follows 2e8f7bcb616c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11175: CCDC154 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.06, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCDC154 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.