Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11169

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11168, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11169
    26 Oct 2026, 20:13 UTC

    SEMA4F

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSEMA4F in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered14aecd8e79206385

    discovery-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    94caa693236eb656437a0898…
    follows c007ada63da1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11169: SEMA4F in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEMA4F in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.