Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11149

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.299). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11148, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11149
    26 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC

    ZNF652

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF652 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered66b20a8d0b8d5bf2

    discovery+0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.299)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f378970f13327291d00e58c7…
    follows bd0a1c8105a5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11157 (2026-10-26 19:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11149: ZNF652 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF652 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.