Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1114

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1113, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1114
    17 Oct 2026, 14:46 UTC

    HIF1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHIF1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4859fb82a6fefa1d

    discovery+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c9b55c66ec7cb0cd3082fe28…
    follows 9c4567ea2e60…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1114: HIF1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HIF1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.