Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11131

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.470). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11130, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11131
    26 Oct 2026, 19:20 UTC

    SLC38A3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC38A3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda25b78bb3dbf4670

    discovery+0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    replication-0.80 p=0.0093 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.470)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    691cd78d391292330a2516bb…
    follows ce084907f9a3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11157 (2026-10-26 19:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11131: SLC38A3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC38A3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.