Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11100

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11099, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11100
    26 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC

    WDR24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWDR24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf1389f8ea7b63333

    discovery-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    20c04322c0139b2ee2ff3ea7…
    follows 0bf3c1c9c21e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11100: WDR24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.69 (p 0.0016, n 18) vs -0.57 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WDR24 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up WDR24 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.10 p 0.722 (needs p < 2.0e-4)