Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11097

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11096, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11097
    26 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC

    MAP3K7CL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP3K7CL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede5404daa1f0a5970

    discovery-0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a69c270109e9bf5cdace8c7e…
    follows 76ae0144a028…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11097: MAP3K7CL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP3K7CL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.