Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11088

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11087, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11088
    26 Oct 2026, 18:17 UTC

    GLRA2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGLRA2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc6f99d24fdbe2b94

    discovery-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication+0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dcc1eeef43152cf04c9b1aed…
    follows 78346bfaf389…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11088: GLRA2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLRA2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.