Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11078

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.277). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11077, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11078
    26 Oct 2026, 18:03 UTC

    NALCN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNALCN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredad353cf891d1316d

    discovery+0.41 p=0.277 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.277)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e7628ba26c736906da5cf636…
    follows f1ba0dded182…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11102 (2026-10-26 18:39 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11078: NALCN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NALCN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.