Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11071

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.768). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11070, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11071
    26 Oct 2026, 17:54 UTC

    TCN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTCN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4ecbef6cd405bfc5

    discovery+0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.768)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f6b916ed4d776733964353c1…
    follows 4560fec391ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11071: TCN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TCN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.