Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11064

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.851). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11063, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11064
    26 Oct 2026, 17:46 UTC

    SDHC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSDHC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfadb2aa53646fda5

    discovery-0.07 p=0.851 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.851)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0d489dd0d9ca6cb7724d3ab…
    follows 3c49307ce5f8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11064: SDHC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SDHC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.