Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11043

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.024; held-out -0.61 p 0.083). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11042, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11043
    26 Oct 2026, 17:19 UTC

    CH25H

    microglia, braak

    predictionCH25H in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda89774e35b5304d8

    discovery+0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.024; held-out -0.61 p 0.083)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    f928ef1bbdfee606ef0214a5…
    follows 12528f3a7176…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11050 (2026-10-26 17:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11043: CH25H in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.27, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CH25H in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.