Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1104

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1103, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1104
    17 Oct 2026, 14:32 UTC

    ST3GAL4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionST3GAL4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d1bc58d63f06a80

    discovery-0.46 p=0.214 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.214)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f17286072b6d327fd026b9c…
    follows 465ab4a194f8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1104: ST3GAL4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.71 (p 0.0010, n 18) vs -0.39 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST3GAL4 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ST3GAL4 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.57 p 0.041 (needs p < 0.0012)