Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11038

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11037, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11038
    26 Oct 2026, 17:07 UTC

    STX7

    microglia, braak

    predictionSTX7 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered55b0fc8c0d3b4f54

    discovery+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c8da5ea554e99aa9031ad4b1…
    follows ca1cee6aa61e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11050 (2026-10-26 17:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11038: STX7 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STX7 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.