Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11035

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.375). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11034, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11035
    26 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC

    DVL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDVL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede317c6ad94c5094a

    discovery-0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.375)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dc8a3f0c1078265628b18a5d…
    follows d11827203ed7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11050 (2026-10-26 17:29 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11035: DVL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DVL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.