Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11013

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11012, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11013
    26 Oct 2026, 16:37 UTC

    CBX5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCBX5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered05030940d26e59ba

    discovery+0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7553ff8638c60e7bb0ba6943…
    follows 5efb765a955e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11025 (2026-10-26 16:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11013: CBX5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CBX5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.