Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11009

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.411). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11008, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11009
    26 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

    ATG9B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATG9B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f25c6130213ab2d

    discovery+0.31 p=0.411 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.050 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.411)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c044f51bc98fed590cb299fa…
    follows 5fd3657e0c36…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11025 (2026-10-26 16:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11009: ATG9B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATG9B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.