Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10997

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.017; held-out -0.43 p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10996, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10997
    26 Oct 2026, 16:13 UTC

    MRPL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRPL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered32f23c8497d8fdd0

    discovery+0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.017; held-out -0.43 p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    dcd4d4af70d7b50fcd904409…
    follows 8276d6410199…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10998 (2026-10-26 16:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10997: MRPL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRPL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.