Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10935

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.14 p 0.716). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10934, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10935
    26 Oct 2026, 14:39 UTC

    EPHX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPHX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3fc7bb3a85b905bb

    discovery-0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.14 p 0.716)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    b2d9b496b781c464cbbffee6…
    follows f896ac72aff5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10935: EPHX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.083, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.083, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPHX1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.