Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10912

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10911, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10912
    26 Oct 2026, 14:12 UTC

    EIF4EBP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEIF4EBP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered08d3069496b882e6

    discovery+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1bc5833c7e956670e963249…
    follows ae588c37e6b7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10912: EIF4EBP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EIF4EBP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.