Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10903

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10902, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10903
    26 Oct 2026, 13:58 UTC

    IFI27

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIFI27 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0b980538ad2b109d

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d4399544ea24517aeb71857f…
    follows af1a0d5a9a39…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10903: IFI27 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFI27 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.