Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10896

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10895, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10896
    26 Oct 2026, 13:50 UTC

    SERPINA5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSERPINA5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredee19cac4a83a3f6e

    discovery-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ea6a898ad8a00deafd5bc1ea…
    follows cf59d0ac3ac1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10896: SERPINA5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINA5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.