Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10867

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10866, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10867
    26 Oct 2026, 13:05 UTC

    SLC4A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC4A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9b7f503abb550b9b

    discovery-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4a80f5a1a71c1bd813a875ff…
    follows a15e014df9e5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10891 (2026-10-26 13:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10867: SLC4A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC4A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.