Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10835

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10834, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10835
    26 Oct 2026, 12:25 UTC

    NDNF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDNF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e949d6a76953b8c

    discovery+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.833 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    10a898a8743de60b0da2eb08…
    follows 6477c0dc8420…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10835: NDNF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDNF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.