Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10754

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.040; held-out -0.26 p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10753, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10754
    26 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC

    RNASEK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNASEK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered86446c389fac5713

    discovery+0.69 p=0.040 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.040; held-out -0.26 p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a953d04c1cfa9ef87b15ada6…
    follows e22f905c0b6a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10754: RNASEK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.14, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNASEK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.