Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10745

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10744, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10745
    26 Oct 2026, 10:16 UTC

    CYP2J2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYP2J2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8a6246f2e2b978fc

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.105 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1bcdda9437e4a3d27a3d3a39…
    follows d3e8fe3f3993…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10745: CYP2J2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.17, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYP2J2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.