Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10740

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.118). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10739, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10740
    26 Oct 2026, 10:11 UTC

    ZNF536

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionZNF536 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf94860cb1dd1f8ed

    discovery-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.118)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3b0992e70d5eee4cfe0e1f59…
    follows 4e651f8bc85d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10740: ZNF536 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF536 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.