Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10706

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10705, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10706
    26 Oct 2026, 09:24 UTC

    FAM107B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM107B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb07fb9ae94c96bf5

    discovery+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    36a9b3e341f946d05e0859cf…
    follows 9e9da4a74fb1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10706: FAM107B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.21, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM107B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.